The Primacy of Secondary Effects
Unheralded but foreseeable consequences of progressive policies help to explain their impact and appeal.
Many progressive policies derive their impact and appeal as much from secondary effects as from their ostensible purpose. The primacy of secondary effects—unheralded but not unintended—has aided the success of the progressive revolution.
Here’s an example from a recent blog post by “George MF Washington”:
Los Angeles officials describe The Road Diet as a way to “shift drivers to other transportation options by adding hundreds of miles of bicycle and bus-only lanes.” Which, on the surface, sounds entirely uncontroversial. But the real purpose of The Road Diet, one which they never ever admit out loud, is to make driving on L.A.’s roads so awful, so dispiriting, and so soul-crushing that Angelenos voluntarily abandon their cars altogether in favor of Public Transportation.
We can see the primacy of secondary effects in many areas.
Regulation. Every commission, or office, or regulation that now makes up the American administrative state had its beneficent purpose: surely it was a good thing to promote fair dealing in the stock market, or protect wetlands, or prevent predatory lending. But for more than 100 years, each policy promoting goodness and niceness also came with the secondary effect of building up an ever-larger bureaucratic apparatus that entrenched the power of unelected officials. Those officials were mostly experts who believed in their cause. They leaned progressive, and they were hard to restrain. The pursuit of goodness through regulation expands a progressive power base. That’s better than good.
Redistribution. The apparent goal of progressive social policy is to help the poor and reduce inequality. The United States lacks a single policy to do this; instead, it has many, several of them supported by non-progressives. Money, food, health insurance, tax credits, housing subsidies, school lunches—you name it, the American welfare state supplies it. Leave aside whether the spending actually manages to reduce inequality much. Its classic secondary effect is to create a clientele that depends on continued governmental support. That boosts demand for progressive policy and crystallizes a helpful voting bloc. Redistribution keeps on giving.
Pandemic policy. Across countries and U.S. states, Covid measures intended to save lives and stop transmission. Whether, on balance, particular policies made much difference in reducing net excess deaths is still being debated. But the means applied nicely fit a progressive template: they enhanced state power, increased the influence of experts, and overrode basic freedoms. In many places, they got the support of left-leaning voters and a fearful public. By not letting a pandemic go to waste, the secondary effects showed what’s possible.
The pattern is widespread in America. Nonenforcement of immigration law ostensibly serves the humanitarian purpose of allowing more poor and huddled masses to enter the U.S. without penalty; it also undermines the nation as an actual community under the rule of law. Decriminalizing petty theft helps offenders avoid punishment and incarceration; it also weakens the security of private property. Liberal judicial opinions on constitutional law try to achieve desired outcomes in particular cases; they also make clear that the Constitution is malleable and textual meaning no object. Officials negotiating with public unions give government workers benefits that help staff basic services; they also create yet another leftish voting bloc and source of campaign funds. And so on.
The primacy of secondary effects shows that conventional conservative complaints about progressive policies are too simple. Yes, unintended consequences often get ignored. Yes, bad or costly side effects may cancel out actual goals. Case in point: at a time of supply constraints, government spending to help the public also raised inflation that hurts the public. But many supposedly unintended effects are merely unheralded and many supposed costs are political benefits. Thanks to the primacy of secondary effects, progressives can succeed even while appearing to fail.